Nicole Aleong

Design anthropologist and futures researcher

Advancing Research 2024 #AR24
March 26, 2024 | New York, NY

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Future Orientations

Below are my interpretations of the 6 future orientations based off of the theory and research by Rebecca Bryant & Daniel M. Knight (2019). I have adapted these definitions in a way that is meant to support the work of applied anthropologists, researchers and other practitioners in humanity-centered design disciplines.

  1. Expectation – A specific conceptualized future state that is visible yet out of reach. Ideas around what is to come are primarily based on past experiences.
  2. Anticipation – A sense of what should be done in preparation for, or amidst the uncertainty of, particular conditions.
  3. Speculation – The thoughts and sensations surrounding a future state that is yet to happen or occur, at the edge of where past experiences fail us.
  4. Potential – The ‘not-yet-actualized’ possibilities that could still occur in the future, or remain dormant. The possibilities are not (yet) in action, they are motionless and could stay that way.
  5. Hope – A positive affect (or display of emotion) resulting from the pursuit to transform certain potentialities into an actuality.
  6. Destiny – A preconceived idea that there is a future outcome that will be reached eventually, no matter the route taken. An overarching narrative that explains what is bound to happen.

Futures Glossary

The terms in this working glossary, listed in alphabetical order, are related to futures studies and futures anthropology. I call it a ‘working’ glossary as I recognize that terms and theories evolve in theory and in practice over time. I invite other curious futurists to review these terms to aid their understanding of the active and ongoing work being done in this field. The purpose of this glossary is to help distinguish different methods currently being applied in the research industry and share knowledge.

Anticipatory anthropology – A cross discipline between applied anthropology and future studies, anticipatory anthropology draws attention to human agency and people’s ability to choose and make different futures. Ethnographers seek to consider future actions or consequences, and anticipate alternatives for various possible future through their work. See also ‘futures anthropology’.

Backcasting (or perfect futures) – A planning method that focuses on projecting and describing a desirable future state and then working backwards to determine the steps and actions required to turn that future state into a reality.

Causal layered analysis (CLA) – A theory and group sense-making method created by Sohail Inayatullah that helps the exploration of underlying causes and worldviews contributing to a situation. The four layers involved are: litany, social and structural causes, worldview, myths.

Design fiction – Coined by Bruce Sterling and popularized by Julian Bleecker, design fiction is the practice of exploring and criticising possible futures through the explorative narration of designed artifacts. Bleeckers emphasizes using prototypes of mundane objects to investigate and critique the social changes and conditions reflected in said designed objects.

Ethnographic futures research (EFR) – First presented in 1976 by Robert B Textor, as a practical means for anthropologists to contribute to the futures field, EFR focuses on eliciting images and preferences related to possible or probable cultural futures of a specific group.

Futures anthropology – A cross-cultural approach to understanding different modalities of the future. This involves examining how individuals and societies envision, experience, and express the future. See also ‘anticipatory anthropology’.

Scenario planning (or future casting) – An imagination-led exercise to consider various types of scenarios that could occur in the future. Scenarios can go beyond the traditional binary of dystopian or utopian visions and can also include pragmatic or speculative scenarios. Emphasis is typically on the distant future rather than the near future.

Speculative design – A form of critical design intended to examine and provoke “what if?” questions and reflexivity on current design methods, techniques, and approaches. Speculative design leans into future possibilities and scenarios by inviting practitioners to suspend disbelief and engage their imagination in the designing of future products and services.

Strategic foresight – Strategic foresight is an approach of using ideas about the future to anticipate possible opportunities, adapt to foreseeable risks, and prepare for changes and potential challenges. See ‘scenario planning’ as a common technique applied in strategic foresight approaches.

Trend forecasting (or trend extrapolation) – One of the most common forms to generate a prediction of the future. Trend forecasting assumes the future will be like the past and the future will continue in the same direction.

References

Inayatullah, S. (2008), “Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming”, Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 1, pp. 4-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991

English-Lueck, Jan & Miriam Avery. (2020), “Futures Research in Anticipatory Anthropology”, Oxford Research Encyclopedias. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190854584.013.14

Additional resources: The Future laboratories for professional and personal development – FUTURES (2020-2023), has also published an excellent glossary of future terms. https://futuresproject.pb.edu.pl/glossary/ 

Additional futurists, futures scholars, and like-minded individuals

It’s worth mentioning that there are naturally many other scholars, futurists, and researchers exploring the future from an anthropological lens. I encourage people to review the work of the following individuals who are active in this space:

If there is a name that you think should appear on this list, please get in touch and let me know.

Thank you again for your interest in futures anthropology and developing your futures literacy.